The long tail of the media

Unfortunately, you still regularly hear directors, CEOs and ministers sighing after a less positive piece in a newspaper that “fortunately the fish will be packaged tomorrow in today's newspaper”. Sighing is indeed the right word, because if only it were true. Of course, the printed circulation of most Dutch newspapers has been in a continuous downward spiral for years. And in this respect we do not differ much from our neighboring Western countries and only a country like India seems to have been able to escape that trend so far.

But the newspaper is no longer the printed version that arrives in the letterbox in the morning or evening, is left in the boardroom or can be bought at a newsstand. More and more Dutch people read an online version of their newspaper. And no fish is packed in it the next day. On the contrary, the online version of an article remains in perpetuity. The number of readers is certainly greatest, especially on the first day of publication, but where "the news" used to blow over by itself, this is no longer the case today. Citizens, opinion makers, other media only have to type a few words into a search engine and 'old' news will also be visible again within a few seconds.

As early as the 1950s, statisticians such as Benoît Mandelbrot were fascinated by what they called “long tail”, in the Netherlands also called the Fat Tail or long-tailed distribution. This principle indicates that the effect may seem greatest in the short term, but that in the longer term the effect may last longer, but is certainly just as great, if not greater.

 And although the concept has always existed, it received new attention through more recent publications by journalists Chris Anderson and Malcolm Gladwell. They applied the principle of the long tail to internet-driven business models in particular: not the immediate volume of a large number of customers but the reality of a long-term, steady stream of customers was perhaps much more interesting. This also explains the success of online bookstores such as Bol.com.

And what applies to business also applies to news; the readership at the first moment of publication is large, but the fact that news can always be found is perhaps even more important. In any case, sufficient reason for directors, CEOs and administrators to view the expiry date of newspapers in a different way. And to act accordingly. The fish has not been packaged in it for a long time and it does not blow over.