Election results

• It is now time to take stock after the election results. A total of four new parties have entered the House of Representatives, although we will only know this definitively on Friday. This Friday gives the Electoral Council to whom the preferential votes went and we know whether Omtzigt received more votes than party leader Hoekstra and whether Van Haga has overtaken Baudet.
• It currently appears that JA21, Volt, BIJ1 and BBB have entered the chamber, making a total of 17 parties in the House of Representatives. Although these parties can participate in the formation, the chance of this is not very great: a new party often has to prove itself first. A possible exception is JA21, since party leader Joost Eerdmans was previously in the House of Representatives for LPF and JA21 has 8 seats in the Senate.t, which they obtained when they separated from the FvD.

Online meeting about formation

On Wednesday March 24 Issuemakers is organizing an online meeting about the formation together with BVPA and Logeion. The following speakers will participate: Fred Teeven about his experiences with formations, Tim Masselink about negotiating, Arco Timmermans about the coalition agreement as a political agenda and Saskia ter Kuile about her experiences as a lobbyist for Vilans.

Further formation talk

• The current scouts, Jorritsma (VVD) and Ollongren (D66) are currently conducting exploratory talks with all 17 parties. They will submit their report on March 30, which will be discussed by the new House of Representatives.
• All parties indicate to the scouts which coalition forms are interesting for them. For example, the VVD indicated that it wants to continue with the CDA and that an alliance with JA21 may be interesting, because of the 8 seats in the Senate. For D66, a coalition with JA21 is not an obvious choice.
• The collaboration between D66 and CU in a coalition seems to be difficult. D66 has indicated that medical-ethical issues should be discussed in parliament, while the CU
  • the previous coalition wanted to record this in the coalition agreement. However, in the letter to the scouts, the CU does not make any comments about medical-ethical issues.
  • There are currently two options for the formation:
    • Firstly, the formation can be formed based on the parties. This means that the largest parties, the VVD and D66, each look for another party and form a coalition with it. This worked well with the previous coalition, although the VVD has already indicated that they do not want a left-wing cloud and D66 that they want to think more progressively. A possible partner for the coalition, PvdA, only wants to be in the coalition with another left-wing party, making this combination difficult. It is also difficult for a coalition with 4 parties to obtain a majority in the Senate.
    • The second formation option is for the VVD and D66 to write a coalition agreement together and then see which parties want to sign up to it, as was achieved with Purple 1 in 1994. In her letter to the scout, Sigrid Kaag already seemed to refer to this: “That is why I believe that the formation of a coalition should start along substantive lines, rather than exclusively numerically.”

  If you are interested in which combinations are possible for a cabinet; de Volkskrant has developed a handy tool in which you can fantasize about possible coalitions and gain experience for a possible job as an informant

And then?

If the formation is successful, the new cabinet will receive a number difficult issues on their plate. Firstly, it is of course the turn of the corona crisis, but not only the vaccinations and possible measures, but also the economic recovery that must follow. Also the labor market, which outgoing Minister of Social Affairs Wouter Koolmees had started before the corona crisis forced his work to stop. In addition, the housing market, the climate crisis and the associated nitrogen crisis are important issues to address. In addition to the various crises that the cabinet is dealing with, various committees have identified sore points, such as the Bosman committee, which found that the faltering policy of executive agencies such as the UWV or the Tax Authorities is due to neglect of the policy by the House of Representatives and the Cabinet.

Official preparation

• Where the politicians in The Hague have not functioned fully for a while due to the elections, the civil servants are extra busy during this period. Before the party programs were written, the National Finance Inspectorate (IRF) had published a list of possible measures for the new period. After the party programs were weighed by planning agencies, the IRF released an update of the list. This is ultimately the list that will be used for the formation negotiations.
• In addition to the financial considerations, 2020 also includes the Reports Broad social reconsiderations published containing possible measures to limit expenditure. Secondly, in recent weeks, all ministries have drawn up sheets with policy considerations, which are sent to the Ministry of General Affairs.

The dolls

Now that a new period is dawning, this newsletter will also add a new section: in each update we will indicate the possible portfolio allocations, which at the moment are still mainly rumors and speculation. For example, in politics in The Hague it is customary that the second largest party, in this case D66, provides the Minister of Finance. However, it is common knowledge that Sigrid Kaag is not very fond of this position, so it seems a logical step for Wouter Koolmees to take on the ministership. However, the question remains what position Kaag will be given.

In addition, it is good to recall that the formation does not only take into account the number of seats, but also whether the party is able to provide quality administrators. This is already known to established parties, but a Volt or BBB minister will be seen as a risk.